Democrat shocks Trump and GOP by leading Florida’s governor Election

Democrat David Jolly is running even with — and in some surveys ahead of — Trump-endorsed Republican Byron Donalds in Florida’s open governor’s race, a tighter contest than many expected in a state Republicans have held since 1999.

The November 3 election will pick the successor to term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. Democrats have not won the Florida governorship since 1994. Trump carried the state by more than 13 points in 2024. That backdrop makes recent polling notable.

A Change Research survey of likely voters conducted Sept. 7–9 found Jolly at 47 percent and Donalds at 44 percent, a three-point edge roughly equal to the poll’s ±2.8-point modeled margin of error. Nine percent were undecided. The poll was commissioned by Freedom Project USA.

A later St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics, conducted Sept. 15–17 among 913 likely voters (±3.2 points), showed a virtual tie: Donalds 44 percent, Jolly 43 percent (43.5 to 43.4 before rounding). Four percent backed someone else and 9 percent were undecided. Independents favored Jolly by 12 points. Jolly also drew more crossover support, taking 13 percent of Republicans compared with Donalds’ 8 percent of Democrats.

Aggregators differ slightly. Decision Desk HQ recently had Jolly ahead by about 1.4 points; Silver Bulletin had Donalds up by about 1 point. Earlier summer polls from the University of North Florida and Targoz/James Madison Institute had given Donalds clearer leads. Prediction markets have continued to favor Donalds by wide margins even as some public polls tightened.

Jolly, a former Republican congressman from Pinellas County who left the GOP and later became a Democrat, has centered his campaign on insurance costs, housing, and affordability. He has argued that Donalds’ heavy spending has not improved the Republican’s favorability. Donalds, the Trump-endorsed Naples congressman who won the GOP primary in August, has framed the race as “common sense versus crazy” and accused Jolly of surrendering to “radical socialism.” DeSantis endorsed Donalds after the primary.

Florida still has a substantial Republican registration advantage. Turnout, insurance politics, and whether Trump campaigns actively in the state remain the largest variables with roughly six weeks left.